Thursday, April 24, 2008

Forex - Dollar rangebound in Tokyo but with firm bias on improved jobs data

The dollar moved within narrow ranges against other currencies in Tokyo on Friday morning but showed a firm bias following steep gains overnight, with buying of the U.S. currency encouraged by better-than-expected jobless claims data.Emerging expectations for an end to a rate-cutting cycle in the United States also aided sentiment for the U.S. unit.The Labor Department data released Thursday showed that claims for unemployment benefits fell by 33,000 last week to 342,000. Economists had been expecting claims would rise by 3,000."Given the recent stable movement on the global financial markets, receding concerns about the credit crunch and surging commodity prices, there is an emerging view that the Federal Reserve Board may end the rate-cutting cycle after one more rate cut in the coming week," Tokai Tokyo Securities chief economist Mitsuru Saito said.At 9:30 a.m. (0030 GMT), the dollar was at 104.32 yen, compared to 104.20 to 104.30 yen in late New York trade. The euro was at 1.5685 dollars, compared to 1.5678 dollars to 1.5688 dollars.Meanwhile, the Ifo research institute's April business climate index for Germany showing a fall to 102.4 from 104.8 in March was well below analysts' forecasts of a decline to 104.3, dampening the market's view that the eurozone economy has "decoupled" from the U.S. The survey also dashed expectations that the eurozone economy would weather the credit crunch and offer some room for the European Central Bank to hike interest rates."The technical picture for the euro/dollar has greatly deteriorated after heavy selling took place during the European and U.S. sessions. Selling in Europe was sparked by a weaker-than-expected German Ifo that threw very cold water on the notion that the ECB was close to pulling the tightening trigger," Thomson/IFR analyst John Noonan said.The dollar also moved in a tight trading range against the yen, lacking a clear lead."If there are more bad news from Europe, or good news from the U.S., the dollar may test the strength of its resistance band of 104 to 105 yen," NTT Smarttrade director Takashi Kudo said."And if this resistance lines are breached, (the dollar) may jump towards the 108 yen level," he said.The market is also closely watching if the recent bounce-back in the dollar will revive yen-carry trades -- the practice of raising funds in Japan where funding cost is comparatively cheaper and re-investing them in high-yielding currencies."Japanese retail investors normally become more active in trading foreign exchange currencies when the yen weakens," Kudo said.Tokyo 9.30 a.m. (0030 GMT)U.S. dollar yen 104.32Swiss franc 1.0353EuroU.S. dollar 1.5685yen 163.65Swiss franc 1.6241pound 0.7947PoundU.S. dollar 1.9733yen 205.84Swiss franc 2.0428Australian dollar U.S. dollar 0.9393pound 0.4759yen 97.95

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info
שער הדולר