Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Know when to trade forex
What Are The Markets Facing?
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Inflation remains ECB`s main priority for now
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The Federal Reserve should cut rates again with housing in a freefallDespite improving slightly, housing remains a problem for the economy in the United States, as inventories are high and prices are still in a steep downtrend. The Federal Reserve should cut rates again and might bring them below 2.00% in the coming months. In fact, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicated that prices of existing single family homes fell again throughout January. Sixteen of the twenty cites reported showed a loss with Las Vegas and Miami among the most beaten and Charlotte the only city with a gain year over year. Numbers lag by three months, but they are confirmed by more recent data. In February, as an example, existing home sales increased 2.9% (+0.7% expected) month over month, but they remain almost 24% below the level of one year ago. The up move covered both single homes (+2.8%) and multiple homes (+3.7%). However, inventories are at 9.6 months of supply, only a few ticks below the October¡¦s top of 10.5 months. New home sales slid instead to 1.8% (-1.7% expected) and are now almost 30% below the level of one year ago. Here, again, the Northeast (-40.3%) showed heavy losses, probably due to the adverse weather conditions. Inventories stay very high at 9.8 months of supply.
Euro/Usd challenging key resistance levels
by Angelo Airaghi
Inter-banking credit spreads in the U.S. seem to demonstrate that financial institutions are caution about the capacity of debtor companies to repay debts and it will take sometime before confidence will prevail again. The financial crisis is spreading over global economies and the effects are just beginning to emerge. The Euro, in the mean time, is again challenging key resistance levels. They are at the conjunction of various trendlines. Consequently, a strong breakout is necessary for higher prices.
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Confidence is fading in the United StatesGlobal tightening is unfolding and could soon hit economies of the emerging markets. Nonetheless, another series of rate cuts is shortly expected in the U.S., so the bring the federal funds rate below 2.00% in the coming months. Last week, Fed officials acknowledged, with only two dissenters, that the economy is declining faster than previously expected and inflation¡¯s pressure might ease, as the economy slowdown would intensify. A weak US dollar does not appear to be a big concern for now, since it supports exports, although it could contribute to import higher inflation. In effect, the international trade remains a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, even tough the U.S. trade deficit increased to US$ 62.32 billion (US$ 58 billion expected) in February from January¡¯s 58.96 billion. Imports moved up 3.1% on the top of January¡¯s 1.8%, while exports rose 2.0%. Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media. This article contains the following sections:
Confidence is fading in the United States
For ECB is business as usual
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Learnig Again!
The simple answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer, currencies are always traded in pairs; EX: the US dollar against Japanese yen, or the English pound against the Euro. So if a broker or a dealer believes that the Euro will gain against the dollar, he will sell dollars and buy Euros.Because you're not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.
Can I trade from home?
Trade from anywhere. If you like to travel, this is a dream business. Take your laptop with you and you can trade the FOREX and make money anywhere in the world where you have an internet connection. You can be on the white-sand beaches of Guadeloupe (My country).You have total freedom of location. FX Trading is not bound to any one trading floor and is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.All you need to get started is a computer, a high-speed Internet connection, and the information contained within this site.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Following Fundamentals Trends - March 2008
Euro Firms on Supportive Data - Will 1.5750 Give Way?
News out of the broader region was not as friendly as the final reading of EZ GDP printed exactly in line with expectations showing that growth slowed in Q4 of last year. Most notable in the GDP report was the fact that consumption declined by -0.1% - its worst performance since 1995. With demand only slowing further in Q1 of 2008, the forecast for EZ GDP does not look promising and it is likely that the region will record another below trend number going forward.
Meanwhile news out of the UK was slightly more positive as both Industrial and Manufacturing production results improved this month. IP rose 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected while MP gained 0.4% vs. forecast of flat growth. The report helped boost the pound above the 1.9700 level and pushed EURGBP lower by about 10 points in its immediate aftermath. The cross had scaled the record high 8000 level earlier in the night, but failed to hold it.
The positive surprise from the manufacturing sector was a welcome sign of relief to beaten up pound bulls and suggests that BoE will lower rates by maximum of 25bp at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. Cable has been battered on assumption that the BoE will be the next major central bank to begin lowering rates in earnest, but tonight’s data suggests that Mr. King and company may continue to follow their cautious policy path for a while longer. In any case with cable woefully oversold against the euro at the 8000 level, the cross may be in for a correction as traders re-adjust their expectations.
With only Wholesale inventories on tap in the North American session trading may continue to be quiet ahead of tomorrow. The EURUSD has had a difficult time clearing the 1.5750 level in the past several sessions and it will interesting to see if today’s mildly positive tone will finally push it through that zone of congestion.