Dollar jumps against pound in late trading

NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar soared against the pound in late New York trading Tuesday night. The pound fell to $1.9678 from $1.9905.

Singapore Q1 unemployment rate rises to 1.8 percent on weaker U.S. demand

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Singapore's unemployment rate rose to 1.8 percent in the first quarter from 1.6 percent in thefourth quarter as weaker demand from the United States forced companies to cut jobs, government data showed on Wednesday.The Ministry of Manpower said about 2,000 workers lost their jobs during the quarter, many of them from electronics manufacturing companies, which are seeing softer demand from consumers in the United States, a major export market.On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the jobless rate edged up to 2.0 percent in the first quarter from1.7 percent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.But overall employment in the city-state grew by 68,400 for the quarter as services andconstruction industries continued to hire workers.
($1 = S$1.36)

Bank of Japan leaves overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.5 percent

TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of Japan left its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.5 percent for the 17th straight meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected.The central bank had wanted time to further assess how much the U.S. economy, one of Japan's most important trading partners, will slow down and whether the continuing credit crisis and housing market weakness in the U.S. will hurt global economic growth.The BoJ said it also needs to ascertain whether the Japanese economy can keep itself on track towards recovery despite emerging uncertainty about the corporate sector and surging costs of basic materials.The BoJ said all seven members of its policy board voted unanimously to leave the rate unchanged.After the decision was announced, the U.S. dollar traded flat against the yen at 104.09 yen earlier.The central bank will hold its next policy board meeting on May 19-20.

Dollar rises slightly against yen in late trading

NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar slipped slightly against the Japanese yen, trading at 104.17 yen late Monday night in New York compared with 104.40 yen late Friday.Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Forex - Dollar comes off daily highs ahead of weekend

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar paused in its rally of the past few days as investors took profits ahead of the weekend, although further gains may come next week if the U.S. Federal Reserve suggests it is done cutting interest rates.The greenback has benefited from speculation that the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut next week may well be its last. With equity markets stabilised and a growing sense that the bulk of subprime-related writedowns have been revealed, the Fed may opt for more caution over inflation."Hawks like Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser have argued that the Fed will have to differentiate between a policy supporting liquidity conditions and its interest rate policy designed to steer the output gap in order to keep inflation near desired levels," said Hans Redeker, head of forex strategy at BNP Paribas.The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 or 50 basis points next week, and the focus will be on whether rate-setters feel the need to pause after that or stop cutting rates altogether.The softening in the dollar from its highs in the morning was also triggered by a downward revision in the University of Michigan consumer confidence indicator.It was revised down to 62.6 in April from the preliminary reading of 63.2 and 69.5 in March. The data is at a 26-year low and also revealed that nine in 10 consumers believe the U.S. economy is in a recession.However, the one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8 percent in April from 4.3 percent in March."The Fed watches consumer inflation expectation closely. This report shows enough evidence for the fed to end rate cuts," said Myra DSouza at IFR Markets.The euro was still broadly weaker, particularly against the pound, as softer economic data from the euro zone -- with the German Ifo indicator posting a surprise fall on Thursday and M3 money supply easing beyond expectations Friday -- has cast doubt on the ability of the region to 'de-couple' from the U.S. recession and global financial crisis.In the United Kingdom, the pound was stronger after GDP in the morning morning came roughly in line with expectations. First-quarter growth was 0.4 percent, a three-year low and down significantly from the 0.6 percent in the previous quarter, but still not as bad as some investors were fearing.This pushed traders to buy back into the pound on the view that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates next month.This view was reinforced later by a YouGov/Citigroup survey that showed inflation expectations have continued to rise, to 3.8 percent in April, up sharply from 3.6 percent in March and 3.1 percent in February."The further rise in inflation expectations in April is a blow to hopes that the Bank of England will trim interest rates by a further 25 basis points as soon as May," said Howard Archer at Global Insight.London 1440 GMT London 1115 GMT U.S. dollar yen 104.30 down from yen 104.42Swiss franc 1.0343 down from Swiss franc 1.0390EuroU.S. dollar 1.5627 up from U.S. dollar 1.5586yen 162.99 up from yen 162.74Swiss franc 1.6164 down from Swiss franc 1.6194pound 0.7871 up from pound 0.7859PoundU.S. dollar 1.9853 up from U.S. dollar 1.9831yen 207.07 unchanged yen 207.07Swiss franc 2.0536 down from Swiss franc 2.0604Australian dollar U.S. dollar 0.9321 down from U.S. dollar 0.9333pound 0.4695 down from pound 0.4706yen 97.17 down from yen 97.40carlo.piovano@thomsonreuters.comcp/cp/kf1
COPYRIGHTCopyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

Dollar turns mixed in the face of weak consumer data

The dollar was mixed against major currencies Friday after a consumer sentiment reading fell to its lowest level in more than 25 years.The pound rose to $1.9826 in late New York trading from $1.9755, while the Japanese currency was unchanged at 105.26 yen.The euro slid to $1.5635, down from $1.5686 Thursday. The 15-nation currency has slid since it reached the latest in a string of records on Tuesday, breaking through the $1.60 mark for the first time and rising as high as $1.6018.On Thursday, the euro lost more than two cents after a downbeat German business confidence survey and an unexpected drop in American claims for jobless benefits.The Reuters/University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment index Friday, which fell to 62.6 for April from 69.5 a month earlier. It was the lowest reading since the early 1980s.The dollar has been weighed down recently by a combination of gloomy U.S. economic data and high European inflation.That has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates yet again while the European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged -- or even raises them, a possibility deflated by Thursday's German business confidence survey."We are just seeing a continuation of upward adjustment for the dollar on a combination of exhaustion of the euro surge, and market expectations that there may not be a lot more easing on interest rates by the Fed," said Bob Sinche, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America Corp.UniCredit analysts said in a research note that "the U.S. dollar recovery across the board ... looks fairly excessive at this stage." They noted that "nothing has really changed on the current economic scenario."In other trading Friday, the dollar edged down to 1.0347 Swiss francs from 1.0356 Swiss francs, but rose to 1.0178 Canadian dollars from 1.0139 Canadian dollars.
by Associeted Press

Forex - Dollar rangebound in Tokyo but with firm bias on improved jobs data

The dollar moved within narrow ranges against other currencies in Tokyo on Friday morning but showed a firm bias following steep gains overnight, with buying of the U.S. currency encouraged by better-than-expected jobless claims data.Emerging expectations for an end to a rate-cutting cycle in the United States also aided sentiment for the U.S. unit.The Labor Department data released Thursday showed that claims for unemployment benefits fell by 33,000 last week to 342,000. Economists had been expecting claims would rise by 3,000."Given the recent stable movement on the global financial markets, receding concerns about the credit crunch and surging commodity prices, there is an emerging view that the Federal Reserve Board may end the rate-cutting cycle after one more rate cut in the coming week," Tokai Tokyo Securities chief economist Mitsuru Saito said.At 9:30 a.m. (0030 GMT), the dollar was at 104.32 yen, compared to 104.20 to 104.30 yen in late New York trade. The euro was at 1.5685 dollars, compared to 1.5678 dollars to 1.5688 dollars.Meanwhile, the Ifo research institute's April business climate index for Germany showing a fall to 102.4 from 104.8 in March was well below analysts' forecasts of a decline to 104.3, dampening the market's view that the eurozone economy has "decoupled" from the U.S. The survey also dashed expectations that the eurozone economy would weather the credit crunch and offer some room for the European Central Bank to hike interest rates."The technical picture for the euro/dollar has greatly deteriorated after heavy selling took place during the European and U.S. sessions. Selling in Europe was sparked by a weaker-than-expected German Ifo that threw very cold water on the notion that the ECB was close to pulling the tightening trigger," Thomson/IFR analyst John Noonan said.The dollar also moved in a tight trading range against the yen, lacking a clear lead."If there are more bad news from Europe, or good news from the U.S., the dollar may test the strength of its resistance band of 104 to 105 yen," NTT Smarttrade director Takashi Kudo said."And if this resistance lines are breached, (the dollar) may jump towards the 108 yen level," he said.The market is also closely watching if the recent bounce-back in the dollar will revive yen-carry trades -- the practice of raising funds in Japan where funding cost is comparatively cheaper and re-investing them in high-yielding currencies."Japanese retail investors normally become more active in trading foreign exchange currencies when the yen weakens," Kudo said.Tokyo 9.30 a.m. (0030 GMT)U.S. dollar yen 104.32Swiss franc 1.0353EuroU.S. dollar 1.5685yen 163.65Swiss franc 1.6241pound 0.7947PoundU.S. dollar 1.9733yen 205.84Swiss franc 2.0428Australian dollar U.S. dollar 0.9393pound 0.4759yen 97.95

Dollar rises against Swiss franc in late trading

NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar jumped to 1.0345 Swiss francs late Thursday night in New York, up 1.0158 Swiss francs the previous night.

Indian Rupee Falls on Demand for Dollar

The Indian rupee declined today to its monthly minimum level on the Forex market as the domestic companies had to purchase more U.S. dollars to pay for the imports, including oil.
It was the second bearish day for the rupee, which is under pressure from the widening current account deficit (which is a great problem for another Asian currency — South Korean won). Imported goods prices, including oil and commodities, rise sharply spurring the demand for the dollars and creating a vast offer of rupees on the market.
Country’s overall imports rose 30.5% in February, while oil imports increased 39.5% that month. Trade balance deficit in February rose to $4.229 bilion according to the April 1st report.
USD/INR rate rose to as high as 40.128 (its highest level since beginning of April) on Forex market today, it retreaded slightly then and closed at 40.055.

Forex - U.S. dollar slightly higher vs euro Sydney morning, weaker vs yen

SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. dollar was trading slightly higher against major currencies mid-morning on Wednesday, partially recovering from overnight losses against the euro when expectations grew that the next move by European Central Bank (ECB) may be to hike rates.At 11:10 a.m. (0110 GMT), the dollar was at 103.01 yen from 103.03 yen in late trade in New York. The euro was at $1.5976 from $1.5995 in New York.Overnight, the euro traded to a fresh all-time high above $1.6000 at $1.6020 after another round of hawkish comments from ECB officials and a report saying that the ECB bias has turned more hawkish and may be forced to tighten again.The officials highlighted that lowering inflation remains their number one aim, despite the slowing growth in the region and financial market turmoil.These events were followed by another weak U.S. housing number for March and comments from Federal Reserve member Richard Fischer saying that he saw a prolonged period of anemic growth.John Noonan, a senior foreign exchange analyst at Thomson Reuters IFR Markets, said with the euro finally breaking through $1.60 overnight the market is now focused on possible intervention by the ECB."If the move is sustained it is likely to induce more verbal intervention from Eurozone officials," Noonan said.But, he said, verbal intervention is unlikely to discourage the market as there was a subtle shift in central bank expectations earlier in the week. "On Friday the consensus was that the Fed was just about done easing and the ECB might have to start easing some time later in 2008. This morning the popular view is that the ECB might have to hike one more time and the Fed might not be finished after they ease 25 basis points next week," Noonan said.He said regional central banks are continuing to buy the euro on dips against the dollar, which makes those holding long euro positions that much safer.In Asia today, Noonan said the big event will be the release of Australian first quarter consumer price index inflation data, to be released at 11:30 a.m. (0130 GMT).The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already signalled it expects a higher annual rise of about 4.0 percent in the headline CPI, while underlying measures of inflation will also be much greater than the 2-3 percent range the central bank aims to keep annual inflation within.Economists don't expect the RBA to hike rates next month if the CPI comes in around the expected level, as recent hikes to take the central bank's cash target rate to 7.25 percent are already beginning to cool domestic demand.But, Noonan said, a high number might induce the market to try and take out the 0.9500 level again, with cries of "parity" against the U.S. dollar growing louder again.At 11:10 a.m. the Australian dollar was at 94.62 U.S. cents.Sydney 11:10 a.m. (0110 GMT)U.S. dollar yen 103.01 yenSwiss franc 1.0038EuroU.S. dollar 1.5976yen 164.615 Swiss franc 1.6037pound 0.8003PoundU.S. dollar 1.9963yen 205.642Swiss franc 2.0042Australian dollar U.S. dollar 0.9462pound 0.4739yen 97.4250New Zealand dollar U.S. dollar 0.7977

CAD Down before Central Bank Meeting

The Canadian dollar was falling slightly yesterday and today against the other world currencies as the traders expected the interest rate decision of the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for 22nd of April.

The total drop of the Canadian dollar (or so called Loonie) against the U.S. dollar this year is at 1.6% after a 17% gain last year. The drop increased this week as the Bank of Canada is expected to lower the key interest rate from 3.5% to 3.0% on its meeting today. The current interest rate in U.S. is 2.25%.

The market is expecting not only a 50 basis point cut in Canada, but also a statement that will support confidence in further cuts by the BoC.

The last interest rate cut was performed on March 4 — it was reduced from 4.0% to 3.5% and the statement signaled that the central bank has now entered a cutting cycle. The present consumer inflation rate in Canada is quite low, thus allowing more loose monetary policy.

USD/CAD rose from 1.0064 to 1.0072 today on Forex, while CAD/JPY pair declined from 102.59 to 102.37.

Thomson Financial Europe AM at a glance share guide: Stocks, oil mixed

Index Change Percent change
*DJIA 12825.02 -24.34 -0.19
*Nasdaq 2408.04 +5.07 +0.21
*S&P 500 1388.17 -2.16 -0.16
Nymex crude
for May $117.48 +$0.79
10 yr US
treasury 3.73 percent
* Monday's close
STOCKS: Wall Street had a mixed performance Monday as investors regained a cautious stance after disappointing news from Bank of America Corp., which said its first-quarter earnings fell 77 percent on write-downs and widening credit losses, and Midwest bank National City Corp., and after oil prices hit fresh highs.
Shares of National City dropped after the Midwest bank said it got a $7 billion cash infusion from equity investors, lowered its dividend and posted a $171 million loss for the first quarter.
BONDS: Bond prices dipped as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve would follow the Bank of England's lead in using means beyond cutting interest rates to ease tightness in the credit markets.
FOREX: The dollar was mixed Monday against other major currencies and slid near a new low against the euro after Bank of America's worse-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The 15-nation currency rose as high as $1.5946 and fetched $1.5916 in late New York trading, up from $1.5805 Friday and not far off its all-time high of $1.5982.
The pound fell after the Bank of England, in a bid to address fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, announced a 50 billion-pound plan to allow banks to swap mortgage-backed securities for Treasury bills. The pound fell to $1.9798 against $1.9940 late Friday.
The dollar slipped to 1.0072 Swiss francs from 1.0182 Swiss francs but was unchanged at 104.17 yen.
OIL: Crude oil set a record for the sixth day in a row -- this time closing above $117 a barrel -- after an attack on a Japanese oil tanker in the Middle East rattled investors.
METALS: Gold futures rebounded from Friday's sharp decline after the dollar weakened against the euro, enhancing the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.
Gold for June delivery rose $2.40 to $917.60 an ounce on the Nymex, after earlier rising as high as $931.90.
EVENTS:
April Richmond Fed Survey
Yahoo Inc. Q1 results. EPS forecast $0.11 versus $0.10
ASIA SUMMARY: Stocks fall; oil steady near record highs
Index Change Percent change
Nikkei 225 13570.29 -126.26 -0.92 (0418 GMT)
S&P/ASX 200 5551.20 -49.10 -0.88 (0419 GMT)
Straits Times 3151.58 -19.51 -0.60 (0219 GMT)
Hang Seng 24492.21 -229.46 -0.93 (0419 GMT)
Seoul Composite 1788.77 -11.71 -0.65 (0420 GMT)
BSE Sensex 16597.53 -141.80 -0.85 (0425 GMT)
usd-yen 103.22 -0.03 -0.03 (Intra-day)
10-year JGBs 1.46 percent +0.015 +1.04 (Intra-day)
Brent North Sea $114.50 +0.07 +0.06 (Intra-day)
crude for June
STOCKS: Asian stocks fell Tuesday, led by financials and technology companies as investors weighed disappointing earnings from Bank of America and Texas Instruments and a fresh spike in crude prices to a record close to $118 a barrel.
BONDS: Japanese government bond prices were flat to slightly lower this morning as investors took a breather from the recent unwinding of flight-to-quality purchases amid a lack of strong leads, with U.S. stocks closing mixed.
FOREX: The U.S. dollar was softer against other major currencies in Sydney morning trade after slipping overnight on concerns about the health of the U.S. financial sector.
OIL: World oil prices were steady in Asian trading on Tuesday after once again crashing through record highs and as producers warned sky-high values are here to stay.
New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, fell 5 cents to $117.43 per barrel. The benchmark contract had struck a new peak in intraday trading of $117.76 before closing at a record $117.48 on Monday at the Nymex.
METALS: Gold stayed firm in early afternoon trade Monday, while other precious metals edged lower. Copper drifted lower, in line with most other base metals, with only tin bucking the trend to stay firm.
EVENTS:
Japan 20-year government bonds auction
Energy Resources of Australia annual general meeting
Singapore's CapitaMall Q1 results
Malaysia mid-April forex reserves
British American Tobacco Malaysia Bhd. Q1 results
Hong Kong March CPI
Hong Kong-listed Beijing Media FY results
China Shipping Development Q1 results
Hong Kong-listed Lingbao Gold FY results
Hong Kong-listed Sinoma FY results
Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry FY results
China's Wuhan Iron & Steel FY results
China's Youngor Group FY results
China's Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining FY results
Taiwan March unemployment
India's Ranbaxy Laboratories Q1 results
India's Biocon Q4 results
EUROPE SUMMARY: Stocks close lower; oil slips
Index Change Percent change
*FTSE 6052.97 -3.58 -0.06
*DAX 6786.55 -56.53 -0.83
*CAC 4910.35 -51.34 -1.03
pound-dollar 1.9838 -0.0128 (Intra-day)
euro-dollar 1.5920 +0.0174 (Intra-day)
Brent
crude(June) 113.57 -35 cents (1514 GMT)
* Monday's close
STOCKS: Europe's leading shares ended lower Monday, tracking weakness on Wall Street, with banks in focus after Bank of America numbers disappointed and amid U.K. cash calls moves, while investors also digested a big batch of earnings news.
Banking issues were a feature once again after the Bank of America earnings disappointment in the afternoon and after a muted response to news from the Bank of England of a 50 billion pounds bailout plan for lenders.
Meanwhile, French advertising group Havas is expected to unveil first quarter organic sales growth before the market opens on Tuesday, while Banco BPI S.A.'s first quarter net profit is expected to fall, mainly due to weak domestic operations and a decrease in trading income.
FOREX: The Bank of England's latest move to help ease the strains faced by the banking sector met with a lukewarm response on currency markets, with the pound continuing under pressure.
BONDS: European government bonds were higher, continuing to benefit from a decline in risk appetite after Wall Street opened lower on Monday.
In the U.K., gilts were outperforming their European counterparts, as doubts were raised on the effectiveness of the Bank of England's plans to allow UK banks to swap mortgage-backed assets for government bonds in an attempt to restore confidence in the banking system.
OIL: Oil on Monday eased slightly from record levels reached in the morning on profit taking and as some energy experts said oil supply was comfortable.
Prices remained well underpinned, however, by supply disruptions in Nigeria and Scotland, dollar weakness and OPEC's refusal to provide the world with more oil amid record prices.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and oil experts kicked off an energy conference in Rome over the weekend, from which mixed signals over the future supply/demand picture have emerged.
METALS: Gold stayed firm in early afternoon trade Monday as the softening dollar and stronger oil continued to lend support, but gains were capped by risk aversion after Friday's price slide.
At 1334 GMT, spot gold was trading at $920.28 an ounce against $912.30 in late New York trade on Friday. Platinum was trading at $2,024 an ounce against $2,042 in late trade on Friday, while silver eased to $17.64 an ounce against $17.82, and palladium slipped to $448 an ounce from $456.
Copper drifted lower, in line with most other base metals, in directionless trade midafternoon, with only tin bucking the trend to stay firm after rallying to a new record high this morning amid fears of a supply shortfall this year.
Copper prices remain underpinned by the prospect of a supply shortfall as inventories dwindle and a strike at major Chilean producer Codelco goes through a sixth day.
EVENTS:
UNITED KINGDOM
BoE's Besley speech in London
Associated British Foods H1 results
Connaught H1 results
Game Group FY results
Bradford & Bingley AGM/trading statement
Moneysupermarket.com Group AGM
LogicaCMG (conclusions of business review undertaken under new CEO Andy Green)
AUSTRIA
Verbund Q1 results
BENELUX
Akzo Nobel AGM
Wolters Kluwer AGM
ING AGM
Macintosh Retail Group AGM
Vopak Q1 trading statement
LogicaCMG business review presentation
Exmar FY annual report published
Euronav Q1 results (after market closes)
EASTERN EUROPE
Polish March core inflation data
Polish March unemployment data
Sistema's Sitronics EGM
EUROPEAN UNION/EURO ZONE
ECB main refi result (0915 GMT)
ECB-European Commission conference "The safety and efficiency of post-trading arrangements in Europe" (day 2 of 2); speakers include Peter Praet of
National Bank of Belgium
EU's Kroes speech at European Consumer Organisation dinner, Strasbourg
FRANCE
Axa AGM
Havas Q1 sales
Saint-Gobain Q1 sales (after market close)
Nexans Q1 results
Haulotte Q1 sales, AGM
Gecina AGM
CNP Assurances AGM
L'Oreal AGM
GERMANY
Puma AGM
EADS CEO Gallois to speak at German Foreign Policy Society
Buba's Remsperger to speak at Wiesbaden conference "Foreign Trade in Times of Globalisation - Possibilities and Limits of Statistical Measuring"
GREECE
Greek 3-year bond auction
ITALY
March non-EU trade
Bank of Italy quarterly report
Sogefi Q1
PORTUGAL
Banco BPI Q1 results; press conference in Porto
Anacom seminar with chairman Amado da Silva
SCANDINAVIA
Finnish March labour force survey
FOEX Pulp & Paper price statistics
Alfa Laval Q1 results
Svenska Handelsbanken Q1 results
MTG Q1 results
Kone Q1 results
Kesko Q1 results
Kone Q2 results
Norsk Hydro Q1 results
Renewable Energy Corp. Q1 results. EBITDA forecast 711 million crowns versus 869 million; sales 1.717 billion crowns versus 1.616 billion
Subsea 7 Q1 results
Autoliv Q1 results
Sydbank Q1 report
SPAIN
Telefonica AGM
Acerinox S.A. Q1 results
SWITZERLAND
March sales surplus
March watch exports
Logitech FY results
Actelion Q1 results
Syngenta Q1 sales

Canada Afternoon: C$ Dn On Profit Taking Before BOC Rate Call

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar ended moderately lower Monday after flirting with parity in earlier trading and then retreating as market players took profits ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement Tuesday. The U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.0071 at 3:39 p.m. EDT (1939 GMT), from C$1.0044 at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT) and C$1.0055 late Friday. The U.S. dollar dropped to a low of C$1.0000 in morning trading, according to electronic trading system EBS, but rebounded in subsequent dealings, hitting the C$1.0080 area before paring its gains slightly. Some market participants appeared to be profits on the Canadian unit's earlier strength ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement Tuesday, said Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange at Scotia Capital. "Obviously, we've got the Bank of Canada tomorrow, so I think a few people might be just squaring up some stuff before we see exactly what the bank does," Butler said. The market is positioned for a 50-basis-point easing in the bank's overnight target rate, taking the benchmark rate to 3.00%. But there is some conjecture the bank could only ease rates by 25 basis points as market conditions appear to stabilize. "It seems like a few people are scratching their heads, saying 'Do we really need to go 50?'," Butler said. Strength in commodity prices, concerns about inflation in other jurisdictions, and the resilience of stock markets are all developments that call in to question somewhat the need for a 50-basis-point cut, he said. A more restrained quarter-percentage-point cut could prompt a sharp rebound in the currency, Butler said. A report from Dustin Reid, currency strategist at ABN Amro in Chicago, said a 25-basis-point ease would likely have the Canadian dollar bid and would likely be enough to push the U.S. dollar below parity with its Canadian counterpart, at least in the short-term. "Of course, much depends on the statement and not only the headline movement. Another dovish statement along the same lines as the March 4 statement coupled with a 50-bps ease would likely get (the Canadian dollar) significantly offered," Reid wrote. A 50-basis-point cut with a less dovish statement is a more probable combination, he wrote. Whatever transpires Tuesday, the U.S. Canadian dollar pair will likely still trading in a well defined trading into the coming sessions, Scotia's Butler said. "We're pretty well smack dab in the middle of it now, and we could probably trade all the way down to C$0.9700, and people would still be unconvinced anything's changed," he said. Support is located around C$0.9980-90, and a break below that would likely inspire fresh Canadian dollar buying, Butler said. Resistance is around C$1.0280, with less significant resistance around the 200-day moving average at C$1.0085, he said. "We've been trading up and down through that average a lot, so I'm not giving it too much weight," Butler said. These are the exchange rates at 3:39 a.m. EDT (1939 GMT), 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), and late Friday. USD/CAD 1.0071 1.0044 1.0055
EUR/CAD 1.5996 1.5977 1.5898
CAD/JPY 102.83 102.87 103.25

EUR/USD Comes Closer to 1.6000

The U.S. dollar fell down to another historical minimum level against the euro today, as the strong technical resistance has been breached and the fundamental economic statistics in U.S. has failed to keep the USD up on the Forex market.
Apart from the bad data from the U.S. housing sector and the commercial crude oil inventories, additional fundamental pressure was applied on the dollar from the Eurozone CPI report today. Consumer prices grew 3.6% (year-to-year) in March there, eliminating the chances for the soon interest rate cut by the ECB.
From the viewpoint of the technical analysts, the current situation with EUR/USD on Forex isn’t surprising too. The euro tried to break the major support level around 1.5910 three times before today. And after it finally did it today, the currency pair soared to the new absolute maximum at 1.5968.
As of 15:48 GMT EUR/USD is trading near 1.5953 and is ready to climb to 1.6000. Thursday will be last day this week with the important U.S. economic releases, so it will be a very important day for the Forex traders, as it will probably show the strength of the current bullish trend on EUR/USD.

Turkmens Scramble To Sell Dollars As Devaluation Fears Grow -AFP

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan (AFP)--Turkmens are lining up to sell their dollars in the gas-rich Central Asian state as rumors fly of a possible devaluation. Hundreds waited in the rain Friday to cash in their dollars before the feared devaluation, from the current fixed rate of 20,000 manats to the dollar. "There are rumors everywhere. One person says that the new course will be TMM6,250, another TMM16,000, others say TMM12,000 (to the dollar). People are hurrying to sell their dollars," said Svetlana, 30, who asked for her last name not to be used. The scenes are signs of change - tough changes for many - in the energy-rich former Soviet state. Exchanges have limited the amount that each person can change, but Turkmens have worked out how to get around the limitations. Known for its secrecy, the Turkmen government has said nothing about the currency fears, and local media, controlled by the state, has remained equally silent. "It is all speculation," said an employee of the state bank. Until January, the official dollar rate was TMM5,200 a dollar - a rate unchanged for 10 years, most of them under the reclusive leader Niyazov who closed the country off from the world. New President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who took over in December 2006 after Niyazov's death, fixed the rate at TMM20,000 to the dollar at the beginning of the year as he begins to implement reforms. But by Friday, the manat had sunk to TMM17,500/dollar on the black market. The queues to sell dollars show how ordinary Turkmens are wary about the economic changes in the country under the new regime. In February, gasoline prices soared eight times higher, having previously remained unchanged since 1993. The government only gave 24 hours notice before the price increase, causing huge queues at gasoline stations throughout the country.

Overall issuance in Japan securitization market down 30 pct in 2008 - S&P

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it has seen a sharp fall in the number of securitized transactions rated and its issuance amount during the first quarter 2008 as compared to last year, given that investors are taking an increasingly cautious stance toward structured finance transactions across the world.

Securitization transactions worth 1.1136 trillion yen have been rated in Japan in the first quarter January 2008 to March 2008, marking a 35.8 percent decrease from the previous year. And, the number of securitized transactions rated by S&P fell to 35, down about 30 percent in this period.

There have been no reports of mortgage loan defaults spiking up in Japan, and there is no observed deterioration in the performance of securitization transactions exposed to residential mortgage loans, said S&P.

But the number of new ratings assigned to securitization transactions has also seen a fall in the first quarter of 2008, said S&P, adding that the issuance amount of asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions decreased by about half, and that of the residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) transactions fell about 30 percent from the previous year.

The performance of RMBS deals backed by subprime loans in the U.S., and those of collateralised debt obligation (CDO) transactions that incorporate such RMBS deals have worsened and their prices have fallen, added S&P.

In contrast, the issuance amount of CDO transactions rated by S&P increased in the first quarter, because of the launch of a securitization program in February 2008 for loan receivables extended to government-related entities.

Data supports US dollar

The US dollar was stronger versus the euro and the yen on the news that wholesale prices were up more than expected in the United States and on an unexpected expansion of manufacturing in the New York region in April, lowering the chances of a large interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.
The New York Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing in the region was at 0.6 in April, up from minus 22.2 in March in the face of expectations that it had actually contracted further.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that wholesale prices were up by 1.1 percent in March, mostly on food and energy prices since core inflation that excludes those categories only rose by 0.2 percent.
However, after crude oil prices soared to a new record above $113 per barrel, the greenback lost some of its gains on the euro.
At just before 11 a.m. in New York the dollar traded at $1.5802 to the euro while it took ¥101.3800 to buy a dollar.
The pound dropped to an all-time low versus the euro at 80.64p after the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that the number of agents and surveyors reporting a drop in house prices was up in March.
The new data shows that 78.5 percent of agents and surveyors reported that housing prices fell in March versus 65.7 percent who reported falling rather than advancing prices in February.
The news brought with it a greater chance of more interest rate cuts in the UK.
At last report in New York, the pound was trading at 80.46p to the euro while it cost $1.9640 to buy a pound.
The surge in crude oil prices to a new record sent the Canadian dollar higher versus the greenback, to C$1.0182 to the dollar at nearly 11 a.m. in New York.

Pound, US dodllar at new lows versus euro

Both the US dollar and the pound touched all-time lows versus the euro on Wednesday on reports that inflation in the Eurozone was up last month.
At 3.6 percent, Eurozone inflation was at its highest in nearly 16 years, decreasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates and raising the possibility that rates could be increased.
The greenback touched a record low at $1.5969 to the euro and was trading at $1.5953 to the shared currency at around 11:30 a.m. in New York, while the pound hit a record low at 80.76p to the euro at the same time.
The dollar was hurt by new data showing that housing starts were down 11.9 percent in March in the US from February’s levels, the lowest since March 1991.
The US currency was also lower versus the yen, to ¥101.5250 in late morning trade in New York, while the euro gained on the yen to ¥161.9627 and the pound traded at ¥200.5424.
The Norwegian krone gained on the euro as oil prices hovered around record highs, trading at kr7.9059 to the euro at late morning in New York.

Euro Flies Through 1.5900 As CPI Stays Hot - Can it Hit 1.60?

Hotter than expected CPI data out of the Eurozone propelled the euro through the 1.5900 level in early European trade as focus returned to inflation which will likely continue to dictate a restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for the time being. The data printed at 3.6% versus 3.5% as food energy and clothing costs all rose more than expected. With ECB mandated to control price pressures rather than manage growth, today’s number essentially assured the market that Mr. Trichet and company will remain hawkish keeping rates at 4% for the foreseeable future.The policy of the ECB stands in stark contrast to Fed’s actions. US monetary officials saddled with a massive credit crunch and a serious recession in the housing sector that looks to spread to the economy as a whole, have basically ignored the inflationary numbers, persistently lowering US rates since last year. As result the EURUSD, gain wiht Forex; make it with account manager; rallied continuously on interest rate differentials and now stands within striking distance of the 1.6000 level. The question going forward is just how much momentum will the pair have if it breaks through 1.60? Currency markets always tend to take prices to extremes, and if monetary officials do not intervene then the possibility of a run on the dollar becomes quite real. Therefore, the 1.60 level may prove to be the key battle ground between the bulls and the bears that may determine the near term direction for the pair. For the time being the EURUSD is trading on pure momentum and only a combination of hotter than expected US CPI data and better than forecast Housing and Industrial Production reports could curtail its ascent. If US economic data shows a modicum of strength, the market may rethink its dovish stance on Fed policy. If, on the other hand, today’s numbers prove to be weak, the EURUSD could take out 1.60 before the day is done.

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What Are The Markets Facing?

The tight Canadian credit markets have remained a concern for the BoC. Therefore, the central bank will infuse another C$2 billion in liquidity into the market on April 17, when they purchase securities with treasuries. The MPC’s fretting has led to expectations that they will cut rates by 50 points at their upcoming April 22 meeting. Despite concerns over lending standards and a U.S. downturn, the Canadian economy has remained resilient. A strong labor market, built on the commodity boom has fueled domestic growth and saw the economy generate another 14,600 jobs in March. Likewise record oil prices have seen the physical trade balance reach a nine month high of C$4.9 billion, as energy exports have increased. Another positive sign for the economy is the recent tripling of expectations in factory shipments on higher automobile orders. Nevertheless, Governor Carney has cut rates 100 points since the subprime crisis started, as the U.S. slowdown is expected to eventually impact the Canadian economy. The only obstacle to a rate cut may be the upcoming inflation report, as rising energy and food costs have increased worldwide, leaving many policy makers reluctant to reduce interest rates. However, with current the current CPI level of 1.8% below the central banks target of 2% and expected to go lower, an uptick would not raise concerns for Canadian decision makers.

Inflation remains ECB`s main priority for now

Markets sense that the effort by the Federal Reserve could help avoid degenerations, but can not change the course of events in the financial sectors. Trying to inspire resilient banks to lend again in the middle of a general reshuffle is a challenging task. More time is needed to take things back on track and another rate cut is possible in the coming months. The ECB, at the contrary, can still focus on inflation, as the economic slowdown is just arriving into the European continent.
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The Federal Reserve should cut rates again with housing in a freefallDespite improving slightly, housing remains a problem for the economy in the United States, as inventories are high and prices are still in a steep downtrend. The Federal Reserve should cut rates again and might bring them below 2.00% in the coming months. In fact, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicated that prices of existing single family homes fell again throughout January. Sixteen of the twenty cites reported showed a loss with Las Vegas and Miami among the most beaten and Charlotte the only city with a gain year over year. Numbers lag by three months, but they are confirmed by more recent data. In February, as an example, existing home sales increased 2.9% (+0.7% expected) month over month, but they remain almost 24% below the level of one year ago. The up move covered both single homes (+2.8%) and multiple homes (+3.7%). However, inventories are at 9.6 months of supply, only a few ticks below the October¡¦s top of 10.5 months. New home sales slid instead to 1.8% (-1.7% expected) and are now almost 30% below the level of one year ago. Here, again, the Northeast (-40.3%) showed heavy losses, probably due to the adverse weather conditions. Inventories stay very high at 9.8 months of supply.

Euro/Usd challenging key resistance levels

by Angelo Airaghi

Inter-banking credit spreads in the U.S. seem to demonstrate that financial institutions are caution about the capacity of debtor companies to repay debts and it will take sometime before confidence will prevail again. The financial crisis is spreading over global economies and the effects are just beginning to emerge. The Euro, in the mean time, is again challenging key resistance levels. They are at the conjunction of various trendlines. Consequently, a strong breakout is necessary for higher prices.
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Confidence is fading in the United StatesGlobal tightening is unfolding and could soon hit economies of the emerging markets. Nonetheless, another series of rate cuts is shortly expected in the U.S., so the bring the federal funds rate below 2.00% in the coming months. Last week, Fed officials acknowledged, with only two dissenters, that the economy is declining faster than previously expected and inflation¡¯s pressure might ease, as the economy slowdown would intensify. A weak US dollar does not appear to be a big concern for now, since it supports exports, although it could contribute to import higher inflation. In effect, the international trade remains a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, even tough the U.S. trade deficit increased to US$ 62.32 billion (US$ 58 billion expected) in February from January¡¯s 58.96 billion. Imports moved up 3.1% on the top of January¡¯s 1.8%, while exports rose 2.0%. Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media. This article contains the following sections:
Confidence is fading in the United States
For ECB is business as usual

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Following Fundamentals Trends - March 2008

More of the same in March, as the dollar slide continued. The unit once again hit all time lows against the euro and once again the economic data showed further signs of contraction as US lost jobs for the third month in a row. However, March also produced first evidence of weakness in the EZ , demonstrating that US was not the only G-3 nation to suffer from the oncoming slowdown in global growth and suggesting that the EURUSD rally may be coming to an end.

Euro Firms on Supportive Data - Will 1.5750 Give Way?

It was a very quiet range bound night of trade as currency markets awaited the dual central bank decisions tomorrow from both the ECB and the BoE. In the meantime the EURUSD firmed on slightly better than expected German Trade Balance data which showed a 16.9 Billion euro surplus versus 15.7 Billion projected. Germany continues to do the yeoman’s work for the region maintaining its level of exports despite the obstacle of higher exchange rates and remains the primary reason for EURUSD strength.

News out of the broader region was not as friendly as the final reading of EZ GDP printed exactly in line with expectations showing that growth slowed in Q4 of last year. Most notable in the GDP report was the fact that consumption declined by -0.1% - its worst performance since 1995. With demand only slowing further in Q1 of 2008, the forecast for EZ GDP does not look promising and it is likely that the region will record another below trend number going forward.

Meanwhile news out of the UK was slightly more positive as both Industrial and Manufacturing production results improved this month. IP rose 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected while MP gained 0.4% vs. forecast of flat growth. The report helped boost the pound above the 1.9700 level and pushed EURGBP lower by about 10 points in its immediate aftermath. The cross had scaled the record high 8000 level earlier in the night, but failed to hold it.

The positive surprise from the manufacturing sector was a welcome sign of relief to beaten up pound bulls and suggests that BoE will lower rates by maximum of 25bp at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. Cable has been battered on assumption that the BoE will be the next major central bank to begin lowering rates in earnest, but tonight’s data suggests that Mr. King and company may continue to follow their cautious policy path for a while longer. In any case with cable woefully oversold against the euro at the 8000 level, the cross may be in for a correction as traders re-adjust their expectations.

With only Wholesale inventories on tap in the North American session trading may continue to be quiet ahead of tomorrow. The EURUSD has had a difficult time clearing the 1.5750 level in the past several sessions and it will interesting to see if today’s mildly positive tone will finally push it through that zone of congestion.